Attributing the 2021 Juruá River Floods to Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Adaptation in the Brazilian Amazon

Renata Pacheco Quevedo; Alex Ovando; Bianca Nunes Calado; Gisleine Cunha-Zeri; Larissa Antunes da Silva; Queren-Hapuque Rodrigues de Luna; Janaína Cassiano dos Santos; Rafael Cesario Abreu; Wan Ting Katty Huang; Pedro Noronha; Henrique Leão; Luiz Felipe Goulart Fiscina; Rafaela Quintella Veiga; Débora Joana Dutra; Ylza Marluce Silva de Lima; Edvan de Meneses; Marcos Timóteo Rodrigues de Sousa; Marcos Massao Futai; Fraser C Lott; Sihan Li; Rafael Luiz; Sarah Sparrow; Liana Oighenstein Anderson

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105530

Attributing the 2021 Juruá River Floods to Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Adaptation in the Brazilian Amazon

Renata Pacheco Quevedo (Korresp. Autor*in), Alex Ovando, Bianca Nunes Calado, Gisleine Cunha-Zeri, Larissa Antunes da Silva, Queren-Hapuque Rodrigues de Luna, Janaína Cassiano dos Santos, Rafael Cesario Abreu, Wan Ting Katty Huang, Pedro Noronha, Henrique Leão, Luiz Felipe Goulart Fiscina, Rafaela Quintella Veiga, Débora Joana Dutra, Ylza Marluce Silva de Lima, Edvan de Meneses, Marcos Timóteo Rodrigues de Sousa, Marcos Massao Futai, Fraser C Lott, Sihan LiRafael Luiz, Sarah Sparrow, Liana Oighenstein Anderson

Institut für Geographie und Regionalforschung

Veröffentlichungen: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Peer Reviewed

Abstract

An extreme rainfall event caused historic floods in the western Brazilian Amazon in 2021, with significant socio-economic impacts. Since global climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of such extreme events, our objective was to assess the extent to which this disaster can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. To achieve this goal, we used CHIRPS data for observational validation of the HadGEM3-A model, which was employed for the attribution analysis, assessed land cover areas directly affected by the floods, and analysed the socioeconomic impacts. The results revealed a positive precipitation anomaly, with rainfall from December to March reaching 48% above the average (1,329mm). This extreme event is 153% more likely to occur in the context of current human-induced climate change than in a natural scenario, with the return period reduced from 107 to 42 years. Furthermore, we found that the Attributable Risk Fraction (FAR) was 61%, i.e., the likelihood of such an event occurring can be attributed to anthropogenic influence on climate. Despite FAR limitations, we estimated that the proportion of climate change-attributable damages amounts to nearly US$10 million and affects over 43,000 individuals directly, likely underestimated. Our findings emphasise the urgent need for global climate action. Nationally, multi-sector data collection and climate integration into disaster risk reduction planning are essential for societal adaptation. Public management must include climate change in territorial planning, as environmental preservation and income redistribution can mitigate flood impacts, which tend to be increasingly frequent, as our findings show.

Originalsprache	Englisch
Aufsatznummer	105530
Seitenumfang	21
Fachzeitschrift	International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Jahrgang	125
Frühes Online-Datum	1 Mai 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105530
Publikationsstatus	Veröffentlicht - 29 Mai 2025

Fördermittel

In Brazil, the official disaster loss estimation is done during the hazardous event, which enables the affected municipalities to receive financial aid from the national government [20]. Nevertheless, due to the nature of the disaster and the logistical difficulty of carrying out this survey in time, much human and material damage ended up being underestimated [103]. An example of underestimated data is the exact survey of human and material damage outside urban centres and peri-urban areas, but especially difficult in traditional and indigenous people's territories due to the difficulty of access and communication during the disaster. Many villages do not have human, technical and infrastructural means for registering, documenting, and communicating impacts. In addition to the difficult access to remote communities of the Amazon, Civil Defence actions during the disasters are limited according to the impact extent and number of people needing support [104], usually with all resources used for the areas with higher concentration of urban population, such as the capital city of the municipalities.The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Sarah Sparrow reports financial support and travel were provided by Newton Fund. Bianca Nunes Calado reports financial support was provided by Coordination of Higher Education Personnel Improvement. Marcos Massao Futai reports financial support was provided by Vale. Renata Pacheco Quevedo reports financial support and travel were provided by Vale. Liana Oighenstein Anderson reports financial support was provided by State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation. Liana Oighenstein Anderson reports financial support was provided by National Council for Scientific and Technological Development. Liana Oighenstein Anderson reports financial support was provided by Newton Fund. Fraser C. Lott reports financial support and travel were provided by Newton Fund. Wan Ting Katty Huang reports financial support and travel were provided by Newton Fund. Rafael Cesario Abreu reports financial support and travel were provided by Newton Fund. Luiz Felipe Goulart Fiscina reports financial support and travel were provided by Vale. Marcos T. R. Sousa reports financial support and travel were provided by Vale. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.This study was generated as part of the ASLIP Attribution and Impacts workshop, being the work and its contributors supported by the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil). Moreover, this study was financed in part by the Coordena\u00E7\u00E3o de Aperfei\u00E7oamento de Pessoal de N\u00EDvel Superior-Brazil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001. R.P.Q, L.F.G.F. M.T.R.S. and M.M.F. would like to acknowledge the VALE Catedra Under Rail for providing financial support to participate in the workshop that originated this paper. L.O.A. acknowledges the S\u00E3o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) grant number 2021/07660-2 and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) process number 314473/2020-3. Finally, we would like to express our gratitude to the reviewers for their time and effort in reviewing this manuscript. Their valuable comments and suggestions have greatly contributed to improving the quality of our article. This study was generated as part of the ASLIP Attribution and Impacts workshop, being the work and its contributors supported by the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil). Moreover, this study was financed in part by the Coordena\u00E7\u00E3o de Aperfei\u00E7oamento de Pessoal de N\u00EDvel Superior-Brazil ( CAPES ) - Finance Code 001. R.P.Q, L.F.G.F., M.T.R.S., and M.M.F. would like to acknowledge the VALE Catedra Under Rail for providing financial support to participate in the workshop that originated this paper. L.O.A. acknowledges the S\u00E3o Paulo Research Foundation ( FAPESP ) grant number 2021/07660-2 and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development ( CNPq ) process number 314473/2020-3 . Finally, we would like to express our gratitude to the reviewers for their time and effort in reviewing this manuscript. Their valuable comments and suggestions have greatly contributed to improving the quality of our article.

ÖFOS 2012

105205 Klimawandel
207402 Fernerkundung
105904 Umweltforschung
105902 Naturgefahren

UN SDGs

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Pacheco Quevedo, R., Ovando, A., Nunes Calado, B., Cunha-Zeri, G., Antunes da Silva, L., Rodrigues de Luna, Q.-H., Cassiano dos Santos, J., Cesario Abreu, R., Katty Huang, W. T., Noronha, P., Leão, H., Goulart Fiscina, L. F., Quintella Veiga, R., Dutra, D. J., Silva de Lima, Y. M., de Meneses, E., Rodrigues de Sousa, M. T., Massao Futai, M., C Lott, F., ... Oighenstein Anderson, L. (2025). Attributing the 2021 Juruá River Floods to Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Adaptation in the Brazilian Amazon. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 125, Artikel 105530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105530

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abstract = "An extreme rainfall event caused historic floods in the western Brazilian Amazon in 2021, with significant socio-economic impacts. Since global climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of such extreme events, our objective was to assess the extent to which this disaster can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. To achieve this goal, we used CHIRPS data for observational validation of the HadGEM3-A model, which was employed for the attribution analysis, assessed land cover areas directly affected by the floods, and analysed the socioeconomic impacts. The results revealed a positive precipitation anomaly, with rainfall from December to March reaching 48\% above the average (1,329mm). This extreme event is 153\% more likely to occur in the context of current human-induced climate change than in a natural scenario, with the return period reduced from 107 to 42 years. Furthermore, we found that the Attributable Risk Fraction (FAR) was 61\%, i.e., the likelihood of such an event occurring can be attributed to anthropogenic influence on climate. Despite FAR limitations, we estimated that the proportion of climate change-attributable damages amounts to nearly US\$10 million and affects over 43,000 individuals directly, likely underestimated. Our findings emphasise the urgent need for global climate action. Nationally, multi-sector data collection and climate integration into disaster risk reduction planning are essential for societal adaptation. Public management must include climate change in territorial planning, as environmental preservation and income redistribution can mitigate flood impacts, which tend to be increasingly frequent, as our findings show.",

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Pacheco Quevedo, R, Ovando, A, Nunes Calado, B, Cunha-Zeri, G, Antunes da Silva, L, Rodrigues de Luna, Q-H, Cassiano dos Santos, J, Cesario Abreu, R, Katty Huang, WT, Noronha, P, Leão, H, Goulart Fiscina, LF, Quintella Veiga, R, Dutra, DJ, Silva de Lima, YM, de Meneses, E, Rodrigues de Sousa, MT, Massao Futai, M, C Lott, F, Li, S, Luiz, R, Sparrow, S & Oighenstein Anderson, L 2025, 'Attributing the 2021 Juruá River Floods to Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Adaptation in the Brazilian Amazon', International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Jg. 125, 105530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105530

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T1 - Attributing the 2021 Juruá River Floods to Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Adaptation in the Brazilian Amazon

AU - Pacheco Quevedo, Renata

AU - Ovando, Alex

AU - Nunes Calado, Bianca

AU - Cunha-Zeri, Gisleine

AU - Antunes da Silva, Larissa

AU - Rodrigues de Luna, Queren-Hapuque

AU - Cassiano dos Santos, Janaína

AU - Cesario Abreu, Rafael

AU - Katty Huang, Wan Ting

AU - Noronha, Pedro

AU - Leão, Henrique

AU - Goulart Fiscina, Luiz Felipe

AU - Quintella Veiga, Rafaela

AU - Dutra, Débora Joana

AU - Silva de Lima, Ylza Marluce

AU - de Meneses, Edvan

AU - Rodrigues de Sousa, Marcos Timóteo

AU - Massao Futai, Marcos

AU - C Lott, Fraser

AU - Li, Sihan

AU - Luiz, Rafael

AU - Sparrow, Sarah

AU - Oighenstein Anderson, Liana

PY - 2025/5/29

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N2 - An extreme rainfall event caused historic floods in the western Brazilian Amazon in 2021, with significant socio-economic impacts. Since global climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of such extreme events, our objective was to assess the extent to which this disaster can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. To achieve this goal, we used CHIRPS data for observational validation of the HadGEM3-A model, which was employed for the attribution analysis, assessed land cover areas directly affected by the floods, and analysed the socioeconomic impacts. The results revealed a positive precipitation anomaly, with rainfall from December to March reaching 48% above the average (1,329mm). This extreme event is 153% more likely to occur in the context of current human-induced climate change than in a natural scenario, with the return period reduced from 107 to 42 years. Furthermore, we found that the Attributable Risk Fraction (FAR) was 61%, i.e., the likelihood of such an event occurring can be attributed to anthropogenic influence on climate. Despite FAR limitations, we estimated that the proportion of climate change-attributable damages amounts to nearly US$10 million and affects over 43,000 individuals directly, likely underestimated. Our findings emphasise the urgent need for global climate action. Nationally, multi-sector data collection and climate integration into disaster risk reduction planning are essential for societal adaptation. Public management must include climate change in territorial planning, as environmental preservation and income redistribution can mitigate flood impacts, which tend to be increasingly frequent, as our findings show.

AB - An extreme rainfall event caused historic floods in the western Brazilian Amazon in 2021, with significant socio-economic impacts. Since global climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of such extreme events, our objective was to assess the extent to which this disaster can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. To achieve this goal, we used CHIRPS data for observational validation of the HadGEM3-A model, which was employed for the attribution analysis, assessed land cover areas directly affected by the floods, and analysed the socioeconomic impacts. The results revealed a positive precipitation anomaly, with rainfall from December to March reaching 48% above the average (1,329mm). This extreme event is 153% more likely to occur in the context of current human-induced climate change than in a natural scenario, with the return period reduced from 107 to 42 years. Furthermore, we found that the Attributable Risk Fraction (FAR) was 61%, i.e., the likelihood of such an event occurring can be attributed to anthropogenic influence on climate. Despite FAR limitations, we estimated that the proportion of climate change-attributable damages amounts to nearly US$10 million and affects over 43,000 individuals directly, likely underestimated. Our findings emphasise the urgent need for global climate action. Nationally, multi-sector data collection and climate integration into disaster risk reduction planning are essential for societal adaptation. Public management must include climate change in territorial planning, as environmental preservation and income redistribution can mitigate flood impacts, which tend to be increasingly frequent, as our findings show.

KW - Socioeconomic impact

KW - Extreme event

KW - Heavy rainfall

KW - Extreme weather

KW - Disaster risk reduction

KW - Attribution

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105007007002

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105530

DO - 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105530

M3 - Article

SN - 2212-4209

VL - 125

JO - International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

JF - International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

M1 - 105530

ER -

Attributing the 2021 Juruá River Floods to Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Adaptation in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

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ÖFOS 2012

UN SDGs

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