Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors

Patrick Hyder; John M.  Edwards; Richard P. Allan; Helene T. Hewitt; Thomas J. Bracegirdle; Jonathan M. Gregory; Richard A. Wood; Andrew J. S. Meijers; Jane Mulcahy; Paul Field; Kalli Furtado; Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo; Keith D. Williams; Dan Copsey; Simon A.  Josey; Chunlei Liu; Chris D. Roberts; Claudio Sanchez; Jeff Ridley; Livia Thorpe; Steven C. Hardiman; Michael Mayer; David I. Berry; Stephen E. Belcher

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2

Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors

Patrick Hyder
, John M. Edwards
, Richard P. Allan
, Helene T. Hewitt
, Thomas J. Bracegirdle
, Jonathan M. Gregory
, Richard A. Wood
, Andrew J. S. Meijers
, Jane Mulcahy
, Paul Field
, Kalli Furtado
, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo
, Keith D. Williams
, Dan Copsey
, Simon A. Josey
, Chunlei Liu
, Chris D. Roberts
, Claudio Sanchez
, Jeff Ridley
, Livia Thorpe

Steven C. Hardiman, Michael Mayer, David I. Berry, Stephen E. Belcher

Institut für Meteorologie und Geophysik

Veröffentlichungen: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Peer Reviewed

Abstract

The Southern Ocean is a pivotal component of the global climate system yet it is poorly represented in climate models, with significant biases in upper-ocean temperatures, clouds and winds. Combining Atmospheric and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP5/CMIP5) simulations, with observations and equilibrium heat budget theory, we show that across the CMIP5 ensemble variations in sea surface temperature biases in the 40–60°S Southern Ocean are primarily caused by AMIP5 atmospheric model net surface flux bias variations, linked to cloud-related short-wave errors. Equilibration of the biases involves local coupled sea surface temperature bias feedbacks onto the surface heat flux components. In combination with wind feedbacks, these biases adversely modify upper-ocean thermal structure. Most AMIP5 atmospheric models that exhibit small net heat flux biases appear to achieve this through compensating errors. We demonstrate that targeted developments to cloud-related parameterisations provide a route to better represent the Southern Ocean in climate models and projections.

Originalsprache	Englisch
Aufsatznummer	3625
Seitenumfang	17
Fachzeitschrift	Nature Communications
Jahrgang	9
Ausgabenummer	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2
Publikationsstatus	Veröffentlicht - 11 Sept. 2018

Fördermittel

Met Office authors were supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and Public Weather Service. The UK National Environment Research Council (NERC) Projects/Programmes DEEP-C NE/K005480/1 (R.A., C.L., P.H., J.G.), HOSTACE NE/J020788/1 (D.B.), SMURPHS NE/N006054/1 (R.A., C.L., S.J., J. G.), ORCHESTRA NE/N018095/1 (A.M., P.H., S.J.) and the BAS core science programme Polar Science for Planet Earth (T.B.) funded or supported author contributions. MM was funded by Austrian Science Fund project P28818. Malcolm Brooks undertook HadGEM3-GC3-A surface albedo scheme developments. Dave Storkey, Daley Calvert and Tim Graham contributed to HadGEM3-GC3 ocean model developments. We thank Sean Milton, Matt Palmer, Colin Jones, Till Kuhlbrodt, Keith Haines, Mike Bell, Phillip Brohan and Maria Valdivieso for useful discussion. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme\u2019s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy\u2019s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Inter-comparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We are grateful to Sarah Gille, Steven Seims and two anonymous reviewers for useful comments over several reviews that led to many improvements to this manuscript (since its original submission to Nature Climate Change in November 2016).

UN SDGs

Dieser Output leistet einen Beitrag zu folgendem(n) Ziel(en) für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz

ÖFOS 2012

105206 Meteorologie

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10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2Lizenz: CC BY 4.0

http://phaidra.univie.ac.at/o:1066360Lizenz: CC BY 4.0

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Hyder, P., Edwards, J. M., Allan, R. P., Hewitt, H. T., Bracegirdle, T. J., Gregory, J. M., Wood, R. A., Meijers, A. J. S., Mulcahy, J., Field, P., Furtado, K., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Williams, K. D., Copsey, D., Josey, S. A., Liu, C., Roberts, C. D., Sanchez, C., Ridley, J., ... Belcher, S. E. (2018). Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors. Nature Communications, 9(1), Artikel 3625. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2

@article{2128e7bb5fc74256a881c27ec081d7d6,

title = "Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors",

abstract = "The Southern Ocean is a pivotal component of the global climate system yet it is poorly represented in climate models, with significant biases in upper-ocean temperatures, clouds and winds. Combining Atmospheric and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP5/CMIP5) simulations, with observations and equilibrium heat budget theory, we show that across the CMIP5 ensemble variations in sea surface temperature biases in the 40–60°S Southern Ocean are primarily caused by AMIP5 atmospheric model net surface flux bias variations, linked to cloud-related short-wave errors. Equilibration of the biases involves local coupled sea surface temperature bias feedbacks onto the surface heat flux components. In combination with wind feedbacks, these biases adversely modify upper-ocean thermal structure. Most AMIP5 atmospheric models that exhibit small net heat flux biases appear to achieve this through compensating errors. We demonstrate that targeted developments to cloud-related parameterisations provide a route to better represent the Southern Ocean in climate models and projections.",

keywords = "CMIP5 MODELS, COUPLED MODEL, ENERGY BUDGETS, FLUXES, GLOMAP-MODE, HADLEY-CENTER, HEAT TRANSPORTS, HEMISPHERE SURFACE CLIMATE, SEA-ICE, SST",

author = "Patrick Hyder and Edwards, \{John M.\} and Allan, \{Richard P.\} and Hewitt, \{Helene T.\} and Bracegirdle, \{Thomas J.\} and Gregory, \{Jonathan M.\} and Wood, \{Richard A.\} and Meijers, \{Andrew J. S.\} and Jane Mulcahy and Paul Field and Kalli Furtado and Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo and Williams, \{Keith D.\} and Dan Copsey and Josey, \{Simon A.\} and Chunlei Liu and Roberts, \{Chris D.\} and Claudio Sanchez and Jeff Ridley and Livia Thorpe and Hardiman, \{Steven C.\} and Michael Mayer and Berry, \{David I.\} and Belcher, \{Stephen E.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018, The Author(s).",

year = "2018",

month = sep,

day = "11",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2",

language = "English",

volume = "9",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

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Hyder, P, Edwards, JM, Allan, RP, Hewitt, HT, Bracegirdle, TJ, Gregory, JM, Wood, RA, Meijers, AJS, Mulcahy, J, Field, P, Furtado, K, Bodas-Salcedo, A, Williams, KD, Copsey, D, Josey, SA, Liu, C, Roberts, CD, Sanchez, C, Ridley, J, Thorpe, L, Hardiman, SC, Mayer, M, Berry, DI & Belcher, SE 2018, 'Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors', Nature Communications, Jg. 9, Nr. 1, 3625. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2

TY - JOUR

T1 - Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors

AU - Hyder, Patrick

AU - Edwards, John M.

AU - Allan, Richard P.

AU - Hewitt, Helene T.

AU - Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

AU - Gregory, Jonathan M.

AU - Wood, Richard A.

AU - Meijers, Andrew J. S.

AU - Mulcahy, Jane

AU - Field, Paul

AU - Furtado, Kalli

AU - Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

AU - Williams, Keith D.

AU - Copsey, Dan

AU - Josey, Simon A.

AU - Liu, Chunlei

AU - Roberts, Chris D.

AU - Sanchez, Claudio

AU - Ridley, Jeff

AU - Thorpe, Livia

AU - Hardiman, Steven C.

AU - Mayer, Michael

AU - Berry, David I.

AU - Belcher, Stephen E.

PY - 2018/9/11

Y1 - 2018/9/11

N2 - The Southern Ocean is a pivotal component of the global climate system yet it is poorly represented in climate models, with significant biases in upper-ocean temperatures, clouds and winds. Combining Atmospheric and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP5/CMIP5) simulations, with observations and equilibrium heat budget theory, we show that across the CMIP5 ensemble variations in sea surface temperature biases in the 40–60°S Southern Ocean are primarily caused by AMIP5 atmospheric model net surface flux bias variations, linked to cloud-related short-wave errors. Equilibration of the biases involves local coupled sea surface temperature bias feedbacks onto the surface heat flux components. In combination with wind feedbacks, these biases adversely modify upper-ocean thermal structure. Most AMIP5 atmospheric models that exhibit small net heat flux biases appear to achieve this through compensating errors. We demonstrate that targeted developments to cloud-related parameterisations provide a route to better represent the Southern Ocean in climate models and projections.

AB - The Southern Ocean is a pivotal component of the global climate system yet it is poorly represented in climate models, with significant biases in upper-ocean temperatures, clouds and winds. Combining Atmospheric and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP5/CMIP5) simulations, with observations and equilibrium heat budget theory, we show that across the CMIP5 ensemble variations in sea surface temperature biases in the 40–60°S Southern Ocean are primarily caused by AMIP5 atmospheric model net surface flux bias variations, linked to cloud-related short-wave errors. Equilibration of the biases involves local coupled sea surface temperature bias feedbacks onto the surface heat flux components. In combination with wind feedbacks, these biases adversely modify upper-ocean thermal structure. Most AMIP5 atmospheric models that exhibit small net heat flux biases appear to achieve this through compensating errors. We demonstrate that targeted developments to cloud-related parameterisations provide a route to better represent the Southern Ocean in climate models and projections.

KW - CMIP5 MODELS

KW - COUPLED MODEL

KW - ENERGY BUDGETS

KW - FLUXES

KW - GLOMAP-MODE

KW - HADLEY-CENTER

KW - HEAT TRANSPORTS

KW - HEMISPHERE SURFACE CLIMATE

KW - SEA-ICE

KW - SST

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85053229420

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2

DO - 10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2

M3 - Article

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 9

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 3625

ER -

Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors

Abstract

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UN SDGs

ÖFOS 2012

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