TY - JOUR
T1 - European scenarios for future biological invasions
AU - Pérez-Granados, Cristian
AU - Lenzner, Bernd
AU - Golivets, Marina
AU - Saul, Wolf Christian
AU - Jeschke, Jonathan M.
AU - Essl, Franz
AU - Peterson, Garry D.
AU - Rutting, Lucas
AU - Latombe, Guillaume
AU - Adriaens, Tim
AU - Aldridge, David C.
AU - Bacher, Sven
AU - Bernardo-Madrid, Rubén
AU - Brotons, Lluís
AU - Díaz, François
AU - Gallardo, Belinda
AU - Genovesi, Piero
AU - González-Moreno, Pablo
AU - Kühn, Ingolf
AU - Kutleša, Petra
AU - Leung, Brian
AU - Liu, Chunlong
AU - Pagitz, Konrad
AU - Pastor, Teresa
AU - Pauchard, Aníbal
AU - Rabitsch, Wolfgang
AU - Robertson, Peter
AU - Roy, Helen E.
AU - Seebens, Hanno
AU - Solarz, Wojciech
AU - Starfinger, Uwe
AU - Tanner, Rob
AU - Vilà, Montserrat
AU - Roura-Pascual, Núria
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. People and Nature published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.
PY - 2024/2
Y1 - 2024/2
N2 - Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs). We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios. We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
AB - Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs). We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios. We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
KW - Alien Species Narratives
KW - biological invasions
KW - Europe
KW - future scenarios
KW - scenario downscaling
KW - shared socio-economic pathways
KW - storylines
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178202455&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/pan3.10567
DO - 10.1002/pan3.10567
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85178202455
SN - 2575-8314
VL - 6
SP - 245
EP - 259
JO - People and Nature
JF - People and Nature
IS - 1
ER -