Fluidity in fertility timing intentions among childless men and women

This study examines how childless individuals revise their intended age at first birth as they move through adulthood, providing a longitudinal view of how fertility timing delays unfold over the reproductive years. Using 14 waves of German Family Panel (PAIRFAM) data for the 1981–1983 and 1991–1993 birth cohorts, it tracks changes in intended timing and lifetime fertility orientations across five-year age intervals and annual partnership transitions. Results show that intentions to have a first child after age 35 are rare in early adulthood, with late first birth expectations and disengagement from childbearing emerging when earlier plans remain unfulfilled. A strong digit preference in the intended age is observed, with men favouring round numbers, and women postponing more gradually. Partnership status plays a decisive role, especially in later life, shaping whether the intentions are maintained, adjusted, realised or discontinued. Overall, the study confirms the fluid and context-dependent nature of fertility timing intentions.