Migration rurale - urbaine face au changement climatique : le cas du Malawi

In developing countries, agriculture tends to be the main source of revenue and food security for rural households. Malawi specifically holds family farming, poorly mechanized agriculture and almost not equipped with irrigation, which make rural households very dependent on weather and its variability. This paper investigates the impact of rainfall and temperature variability on rural-urban migration in Malawi over the period 1965 to 2016. We look at the agriculture productivity channel as a driver of migration. We propose a new approach that includes long-term climate change using indicators calculated over an 86-year period. We include terrestrial, atmospheric and demographic data into our analysis. Modelling climate change with seasonal indicators shows that a change in temperature and rainfall in the dry season leads to migration from rural to urban areas. We show that the trend increase in evapotranspiration significantly impacts urban population growth in Malawi via a greater land aridity, higher plant water loss and lower overall flood resistance. Our findings point to water management and increase wetlands suitable for agriculture as an adaptation to climate change.