Risk analysis of the Company's activities by means of simulation

Elena M. Kuzmina, Oksana Klochko, Nataliia B. Savina, Svetlana A. Yaremko, Roman B. Akselrod, Christine Strauss

Veröffentlichungen: Beitrag in BuchBeitrag in KonferenzbandPeer Reviewed

Abstract

The use of simulation methods and modern information technologies increases competitiveness, management efficiency and eliminates possible risks in the company's activities. The use of the Monte-Carlo method is promising in simulation. The basis of the classical Monte-Carlo method is to obtain a large number of implementations of a random process, which is formed so that the probabilistic characteristics (mathematical expectations, probability of some events, probability of the trajectory in a certain area, etc.) are equal to the predetermined value of the problem. Construction of the model using this method should be based on the distribution of random variables in the studied process. The set of implementations can be used as some artificially obtained statistical material processed by methods of mathematical statistics. The author's development was the application in the classical Monte-Carlo method of generating samples of random variables with uniform and triangular distribution, as well as risk analysis of the company and forecasting for the future with greater probability using modern means of automating complex calculations based on high-level programming languages. The software implementation of the advanced Monte-Carlo method is performed using high-level object-oriented Python language tools that allow you to automate all stages of application of the Monte-Carlo method and store the results in a database. Strategic planning support tools based on computer simulation provide an opportunity to reflect complex nonlinear interactions in the business, assess the consequences of the implementation of various scenarios or predict further developments in the company.

OriginalspracheEnglisch
TitelCITRisk 2020. Computational & Information Technologies for Risk-Informed Systems
UntertitelProceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Computational & Information Technologies for Risk-Informed Systems (CITRisk 2020) co-located with XX International scientific and technical conference on Information Technologies in Education and Management (ІТЕМ 2020). Kherson, Ukraine, October 15-16, 2020
Redakteure*innenStefan Wolfgang Pickl, Volodymyr Lytvynenko, Maryna Zharikova, Volodymyr Sherstjuk
Seiten162-174
Seitenumfang13
Band2805
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2020
Veranstaltung1st International Workshop on Computational and Information Technologies for Risk-Informed Systems, CITRisk 2020 - Virtual, Kherson, Ukraine
Dauer: 15 Okt. 202016 Okt. 2020

Publikationsreihe

ReiheCEUR Workshop Proceedings
ISSN1613-0073

Konferenz

Konferenz1st International Workshop on Computational and Information Technologies for Risk-Informed Systems, CITRisk 2020
Land/GebietUkraine
OrtVirtual, Kherson
Zeitraum15/10/2016/10/20

ÖFOS 2012

  • 502036 Risikomanagement
  • 102009 Computersimulation

Zitationsweisen