Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems.

Ronan McAdam (Korresp. Autor*in), Simona Masina, Magdalena Balmaseda, Silvio Gualdi, Retish Senan, Michael Mayer

Veröffentlichungen: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelPeer Reviewed


Ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies typically persist for several months, making this variable a vital component of seasonal predictability in both the ocean and the atmosphere. However, the ability of seasonal forecasting systems to predict OHC remains largely untested. Here, we present a global assessment of OHC predictability in two state-of-the-art and fully-coupled seasonal forecasting systems. Overall, we find that dynamical systems make skilful seasonal predictions of OHC in the upper 300 m across a range of forecast start times, seasons and dynamical environments. Predictions of OHC are typically as skilful as predictions of sea surface temperature (SST), providing further proof that accurate representation of subsurface heat contributes to accurate surface predictions. We also compare dynamical systems to a simple anomaly persistence model to identify where dynamical systems provide added value over cheaper forecasts; this largely occurs in the equatorial regions and the tropics, and to a greater extent in the latter part of the forecast period. Regions where system performance is inadequate include the sub-polar regions and areas dominated by sharp fronts, which should be the focus of future improvements of climate forecasting systems.

Seiten (von - bis)3335-3350
FachzeitschriftClimate Dynamics
Frühes Online-Datum31 Jan. 2022
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Juni 2022

ÖFOS 2012

  • 105206 Meteorologie