Six Decades of Losses and Gains in Alpha Diversity of European Plant Communities

Gabriele Midolo; Adam Thomas Clark; Milan Chytrý; Franz Essl; Stefan Dullinger; Ute Jandt; Helge Bruelheide; Olivier Argagnon; Idoia Biurrun; Alessandro Chiarucci; Renata Ćušterevska; Pieter De Frenne; Michele De Sanctis; Jürgen Dengler; Jan Divíšek; Tetiana Dziuba; Rasmus Ejrnæs; Emmanuel Garbolino; Estela Illa; Anke Jentsch; Borja Jiménez-Alfaro; Jonathan Lenoir; Jesper Erenskjold Moeslund; Francesca Napoleone; Remigiusz Pielech; Sabine B. Rumpf; Irati Sanz-Zubizarreta; Vasco Silva; Jens Christian Svenning; Grzegorz Swacha; Martin Večeřa; Denys Vynokurov; Petr Keil

doi:10.1111/ele.70248

Six Decades of Losses and Gains in Alpha Diversity of European Plant Communities

Gabriele Midolo
, Adam Thomas Clark
, Milan Chytrý
, Franz Essl
, Stefan Dullinger
, Ute Jandt
, Helge Bruelheide
, Olivier Argagnon
, Idoia Biurrun
, Alessandro Chiarucci
, Renata Ćušterevska
, Pieter De Frenne
, Michele De Sanctis
, Jürgen Dengler
, Jan Divíšek
, Tetiana Dziuba
, Rasmus Ejrnæs
, Emmanuel Garbolino
, Estela Illa
, Anke Jentsch

Borja Jiménez-Alfaro, Jonathan Lenoir, Jesper Erenskjold Moeslund, Francesca Napoleone, Remigiusz Pielech, Sabine B. Rumpf, Irati Sanz-Zubizarreta, Vasco Silva, Jens Christian Svenning, Grzegorz Swacha, Martin Večeřa, Denys Vynokurov, Petr Keil

Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung

Veröffentlichungen: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Peer Reviewed

Abstract

Biodiversity change forecasts rely on long-term time series, but such data are often scarce in space and time. Here, we interpolated spatiotemporal changes in species richness using a new method based on machine learning that does not require temporal replication at sites. Using 698,692 one-time sampled vegetation plots, we estimated trends in vascular plant alpha diversity across Europe and validated our approach against 22,852 independent time series. We found an overall near-zero net change in species richness between 1960 and 2020. However, species richness generally declined from 1960 to 1980 and increased from 2000 to 2020 across habitats. Declines were most pronounced in forests, but trends varied across habitats and regions, with overall increases at higher latitudes and elevations, and declines or stable trends elsewhere. Our findings demonstrate how data without temporal replication can be used to reveal context-dependent biodiversity dynamics, underscoring their importance for conservation and management.

Originalsprache	Englisch
Aufsatznummer	e70248
Seiten (von - bis)	1-12
Seitenumfang	12
Fachzeitschrift	Ecology Letters
Jahrgang	28
Ausgabenummer	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70248
Publikationsstatus	Veröffentlicht - Nov. 2025

Fördermittel

Funding: This work was supported by Biodiversa+ (101052342), Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea (IT487-22, PIF21/255), Austrian Science Fund (I 6578), European Research Council (101044740, 101124948), Danmarks Grundforskningsfond (DNRF173), Grantová Agentura České Republiky (24-14299L, 25-15235S), Italian Ministry of University and Research (CN_00000033), and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (532411638). We thank colleagues who sampled vegetation plots in the field or digitised them into the databases used in this work. We appreciate the helpful comments of three anonymous reviewers and the handling editor on a previous version of this publication. G.M., P.K., and A.T.C. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project no. 24-14299L) and the Austrian Science Foundation FWF (project no. I 6578) as part of the GRACE project. P.K. was funded by the European Union (ERC, BEAST, 101044740). Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council Executive Agency. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. M.C., J.Di., and M.V. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project no. 25-15235S). U.J. and H.B. acknowledge funding from Biodiversa+ in the context of the MOTIVATE project under the 2022–2023 BiodivMon joint call, co-funded by the European Commission (GA No. 101052342) and the German Research Foundation (DFG) project number 532411638. A.C. was supported by Italian Ministry of University and Research Grant CN_00000033 project number CUP J33C22001190001. I.B. and I.S.-Z. were supported by the Basque Government (IT487-22). I.S.-Z. was also supported by the University of the Basque Country predoctoral grant (PIF21/255). P.D.F. received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Consolidator Grant CanopyChange 101124948). B.J.-A. was supported by the EU, the Principality of Asturias and the SEKUENS Agency through the GRUPIN grants. J.-C.S. was supported by the Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), funded by the Danish National Research Foundation (grant DNRF173). Open access publishing facilitated by Ceska zemedelska univerzita v Praze, as part of the Wiley - CzechELib agreement. We thank colleagues who sampled vegetation plots in the field or digitised them into the databases used in this work. We appreciate the helpful comments of three anonymous reviewers and the handling editor on a previous version of this publication. G.M., P.K., and A.T.C. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project no. 24‐14299L) and the Austrian Science Foundation FWF (project no. I 6578) as part of the GRACE project. P.K. was funded by the European Union (ERC, BEAST, 101044740). Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council Executive Agency. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. M.C., J.Di., and M.V. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project no. 25‐15235S). U.J. and H.B. acknowledge funding from Biodiversa+ in the context of the MOTIVATE project under the 2022–2023 BiodivMon joint call, co‐funded by the European Commission (GA No. 101052342) and the German Research Foundation (DFG) project number 532411638. A.C. was supported by Italian Ministry of University and Research Grant CN_00000033 project number CUP J33C22001190001. I.B. and I.S.‐Z. were supported by the Basque Government (IT487‐22). I.S.‐Z. was also supported by the University of the Basque Country predoctoral grant (PIF21/255). P.D.F. received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Consolidator Grant CanopyChange 101124948). B.J.‐A. was supported by the EU, the Principality of Asturias and the SEKUENS Agency through the GRUPIN grants. J.‐C.S. was supported by the Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), funded by the Danish National Research Foundation (grant DNRF173). Open access publishing facilitated by Ceska zemedelska univerzita v Praze, as part of the Wiley ‐ CzechELib agreement. This work was supported by Biodiversa+ (101052342), Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea (IT487‐22, PIF21/255), Austrian Science Fund (I 6578), European Research Council (101044740, 101124948), Danmarks Grundforskningsfond (DNRF173), Grantová Agentura České Republiky (24‐14299L, 25‐15235S), Italian Ministry of University and Research (CN_00000033), and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (532411638). Funding:

ÖFOS 2012

106003 Biodiversitätsforschung

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10.1111/ele.70248

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Zitationsweisen

Midolo, G., Clark, A. T., Chytrý, M., Essl, F., Dullinger, S., Jandt, U., Bruelheide, H., Argagnon, O., Biurrun, I., Chiarucci, A., Ćušterevska, R., De Frenne, P., De Sanctis, M., Dengler, J., Divíšek, J., Dziuba, T., Ejrnæs, R., Garbolino, E., Illa, E., ... Keil, P. (2025). Six Decades of Losses and Gains in Alpha Diversity of European Plant Communities. Ecology Letters, 28(11), 1-12. Artikel e70248. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70248

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title = "Six Decades of Losses and Gains in Alpha Diversity of European Plant Communities",

abstract = "Biodiversity change forecasts rely on long-term time series, but such data are often scarce in space and time. Here, we interpolated spatiotemporal changes in species richness using a new method based on machine learning that does not require temporal replication at sites. Using 698,692 one-time sampled vegetation plots, we estimated trends in vascular plant alpha diversity across Europe and validated our approach against 22,852 independent time series. We found an overall near-zero net change in species richness between 1960 and 2020. However, species richness generally declined from 1960 to 1980 and increased from 2000 to 2020 across habitats. Declines were most pronounced in forests, but trends varied across habitats and regions, with overall increases at higher latitudes and elevations, and declines or stable trends elsewhere. Our findings demonstrate how data without temporal replication can be used to reveal context-dependent biodiversity dynamics, underscoring their importance for conservation and management.",

keywords = "alpha diversity, autocorrelation, biogeographic regions, habitat specificity, latitudinal gradient, machine learning, nature conservation, random forests, statistical interpolation, vegetation resurvey",

author = "Gabriele Midolo and Clark, \{Adam Thomas\} and Milan Chytr{\'y} and Franz Essl and Stefan Dullinger and Ute Jandt and Helge Bruelheide and Olivier Argagnon and Idoia Biurrun and Alessandro Chiarucci and Renata {\'C}u{\v s}terevska and \{De Frenne\}, Pieter and \{De Sanctis\}, Michele and J{\"u}rgen Dengler and Jan Div{\'i}{\v s}ek and Tetiana Dziuba and Rasmus Ejrn{\ae}s and Emmanuel Garbolino and Estela Illa and Anke Jentsch and Borja Jim{\'e}nez-Alfaro and Jonathan Lenoir and Moeslund, \{Jesper Erenskjold\} and Francesca Napoleone and Remigiusz Pielech and Rumpf, \{Sabine B.\} and Irati Sanz-Zubizarreta and Vasco Silva and Svenning, \{Jens Christian\} and Grzegorz Swacha and Martin Ve{\v c}e{\v r}a and Denys Vynokurov and Petr Keil",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025 The Author(s). Ecology Letters published by John Wiley \& Sons Ltd.",

year = "2025",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1111/ele.70248",

language = "English",

volume = "28",

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Midolo, G, Clark, AT, Chytrý, M, Essl, F , Dullinger, S, Jandt, U, Bruelheide, H, Argagnon, O, Biurrun, I, Chiarucci, A, Ćušterevska, R, De Frenne, P, De Sanctis, M, Dengler, J, Divíšek, J, Dziuba, T, Ejrnæs, R, Garbolino, E, Illa, E, Jentsch, A, Jiménez-Alfaro, B, Lenoir, J, Moeslund, JE, Napoleone, F, Pielech, R, Rumpf, SB, Sanz-Zubizarreta, I, Silva, V, Svenning, JC, Swacha, G, Večeřa, M, Vynokurov, D & Keil, P 2025, 'Six Decades of Losses and Gains in Alpha Diversity of European Plant Communities', Ecology Letters, Jg. 28, Nr. 11, e70248, S. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70248

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AU - Midolo, Gabriele

AU - Clark, Adam Thomas

AU - Chytrý, Milan

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AU - Jandt, Ute

AU - Bruelheide, Helge

AU - Argagnon, Olivier

AU - Biurrun, Idoia

AU - Chiarucci, Alessandro

AU - Ćušterevska, Renata

AU - De Frenne, Pieter

AU - De Sanctis, Michele

AU - Dengler, Jürgen

AU - Divíšek, Jan

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AU - Rumpf, Sabine B.

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AU - Silva, Vasco

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

AU - Swacha, Grzegorz

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AU - Vynokurov, Denys

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N2 - Biodiversity change forecasts rely on long-term time series, but such data are often scarce in space and time. Here, we interpolated spatiotemporal changes in species richness using a new method based on machine learning that does not require temporal replication at sites. Using 698,692 one-time sampled vegetation plots, we estimated trends in vascular plant alpha diversity across Europe and validated our approach against 22,852 independent time series. We found an overall near-zero net change in species richness between 1960 and 2020. However, species richness generally declined from 1960 to 1980 and increased from 2000 to 2020 across habitats. Declines were most pronounced in forests, but trends varied across habitats and regions, with overall increases at higher latitudes and elevations, and declines or stable trends elsewhere. Our findings demonstrate how data without temporal replication can be used to reveal context-dependent biodiversity dynamics, underscoring their importance for conservation and management.

AB - Biodiversity change forecasts rely on long-term time series, but such data are often scarce in space and time. Here, we interpolated spatiotemporal changes in species richness using a new method based on machine learning that does not require temporal replication at sites. Using 698,692 one-time sampled vegetation plots, we estimated trends in vascular plant alpha diversity across Europe and validated our approach against 22,852 independent time series. We found an overall near-zero net change in species richness between 1960 and 2020. However, species richness generally declined from 1960 to 1980 and increased from 2000 to 2020 across habitats. Declines were most pronounced in forests, but trends varied across habitats and regions, with overall increases at higher latitudes and elevations, and declines or stable trends elsewhere. Our findings demonstrate how data without temporal replication can be used to reveal context-dependent biodiversity dynamics, underscoring their importance for conservation and management.

KW - alpha diversity

KW - autocorrelation

KW - biogeographic regions

KW - habitat specificity

KW - latitudinal gradient

KW - machine learning

KW - nature conservation

KW - random forests

KW - statistical interpolation

KW - vegetation resurvey

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105020770651

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DO - 10.1111/ele.70248

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JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

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M1 - e70248

ER -

Six Decades of Losses and Gains in Alpha Diversity of European Plant Communities

Abstract

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