Suicide and general elections in Austria: Do preceding regional suicide rate differentials foreshadow subsequent voting behavior swings?

Background: Suicide-epidemiological research on short-term effects of elections on national/regional suicide and parasuicide incidence has yielded contradictory evidence. Reversing the cause-effect relationship of this line of research we investigated whether preceding regional suicide rates are related to subsequent election results. Methods: For Austria's 121 districts, we regressed averaged standardized suicide rates for the preceding period (1988-1994) on political parties' subsequent electoral gains/losses (1999-to-1995) while controlling for a set of 12 domain-relevant psychosocial/economic indices. Results: Stepwise weighted multiple regression led to a significant model. The 1999-to-1995 electoral gains/losses of two opposition parties, together with the population variation caused by migration balance and by births/deaths balance, accounted for a substantial part (30%) of the variability in preceding district-level suicide rates. Various other social indices failed to contribute further substantial increments to this model. Conclusions: This finding suggests that variations in preceding regional suicide incidence might be mirrored in subsequent changes in voting behavior. A speculative post hoc explanation for the finding is offered: on a community level, suicide's aftermath might produce socially and politically alienated survivors of suicide who co-shape swings towards opposition parties in subsequent general elections. The finding calls for more research on suicide's long-term aftermath. Limitations: Within-country replicability and cross-national generalizability await further investigation. At present, the factor/mechanism accounting for this finding is neither well-established nor has been directly tested. Π2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.