The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea

Paolo G. Albano (Korresp. Autor*in), Lotta Schultz, Johannes Wessely, Marco Taviani, Stefan Dullinger, Silvia Danise

Veröffentlichungen: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelPeer Reviewed

Abstract

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummere2320687121
Seiten (von - bis)1-8
FachzeitschriftProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Jahrgang121
Ausgabenummer15
DOIs
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Apr. 2024

ÖFOS 2012

  • 106003 Biodiversitätsforschung
  • 107006 Naturschutz

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