Urban poor are the most endangered by socio-natural hazards, but not exclusively: the 2025 Granizal Landslide case

In June 2025, the rainfall-induced Granizal Landslide claimed 27 lives across two jurisdictions in the Medellín metropolitan area. Based on our empirical analyses of a local socio-economic index, we argue that socio-spatial segregation may have increased the likelihood and impact of the disaster. The event’s location also underscores the challenges faced during emergency response and post-disaster recovery across administrative boundaries, particularly given the stark contrast in the capacities of municipal authorities. We suggest that intensifying climate change may lead to events that exceed current engineering design criteria, thereby exposing even formal neighborhoods—often considered more physically resilient—to substantially elevated risk levels and narrowing the gap with informal settlements.