100-kyr climate cycles caused by 2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated carbon cycles

Zhifeng Zhang; Yongjian Huang; Chao  Ma; Quizhen Yin; Hanfei Yang; Eun Young Lee; Hai Cheng; Benjamin Sames; Michael Wagreich; Tiantian Wang; Qingping Liu; Chenshan Wang

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-63403-4

100-kyr climate cycles caused by 2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated carbon cycles

Zhifeng Zhang
, Yongjian Huang
, Chao Ma
, Quizhen Yin
, Hanfei Yang
, Eun Young Lee
, Hai Cheng
, Benjamin Sames
, Michael Wagreich
, Tiantian Wang
, Qingping Liu
, Chenshan Wang

Department of Geology

Publications: Contribution to journal › Article › Peer Reviewed

Abstract

Earth’s climate has been dominated by ~100-kyr glacial cycles over the past ~800 ka, yet the mechanism remains debated. Here, we present correlation analyses of spectral power ratios of global records spanning the past 2.7 Ma, revealing a persistent anticorrelation between ~21-kyr and ~100-kyr power ratios, but no significant relationship between ~41-kyr and ~100-kyr power ratios. This suggests that ~100-kyr climate cycles are more related to eccentricity-modulated precession than to obliquity. Phase analyses of benthic δ18O/ice volume and δ13C (carbon cycle) since Antarctic glaciation onset (~34 Ma) show that strong ~100-kyr cycles emerged only when these proxies were phase-coupled. Such coupling recurred at ~2.4-Myr eccentricity maxima during the unipolar regime (before 7.5 Ma) and minima during the bipolar regime (after 4 Ma), explaining the persistent ~21-kyr/~100-kyr anticorrelation because eccentricity modulates precession amplitude. We propose that internal carbon cycle dynamics and ~2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated δ¹⁸O/ice volume–δ¹³C coupling amplified ~100-kyr climate cycles not only over the past ~800 ka but since 34 Ma. Given that eccentricity will remain low for the next 400 kyr, ~100-kyr periodicities may continue to dominate future climate variability, assuming Earth remains in a bipolar regime.

Original language	English
Article number	8043
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	16
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63403-4
Publication status	Published - 28 Aug 2025

Funding

This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42488201 to C.W., 42272134 & 41972112 to Y.H.), “Deep-time Digital Earth” Science and Technology Leading Talents Team Funds for the Central Universities for the Frontiers Science Center for Deep-time Digital Earth, China University of Geosciences (Beijing) (Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities; No. 2652023001 to C.W.), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2023YFF0804000 to C.M.), the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF (No. GZC20241605 to Z.Z.). Z.Z. gratefully acknowledges the fellowship from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2025M770431) and the support from China Scholarship Council. B.S. acknowledges project BrasCretOst I (sponsored by PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) ensuring his opportunity to contribute to this study. M.W. acknowledges support by the Austrian Academy of Sciences, International Programs, UNESCO IGCP 732.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

105205 Climate change
105121 Sedimentology
105306 Oceanography

Keywords

Climate change .
PALEOCLIMATE
PALEOCEANOGRAPHY

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10.1038/s41467-025-63403-4

Cite this

@article{3dd5b044c5af431ab9096dedd7213564,

title = "100-kyr climate cycles caused by 2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated carbon cycles",

abstract = "Earth{\textquoteright}s climate has been dominated by \textasciitilde{}100-kyr glacial cycles over the past \textasciitilde{}800 ka, yet the mechanism remains debated. Here, we present correlation analyses of spectral power ratios of global records spanning the past 2.7 Ma, revealing a persistent anticorrelation between \textasciitilde{}21-kyr and \textasciitilde{}100-kyr power ratios, but no significant relationship between \textasciitilde{}41-kyr and \textasciitilde{}100-kyr power ratios. This suggests that \textasciitilde{}100-kyr climate cycles are more related to eccentricity-modulated precession than to obliquity. Phase analyses of benthic δ18O/ice volume and δ13C (carbon cycle) since Antarctic glaciation onset (\textasciitilde{}34 Ma) show that strong \textasciitilde{}100-kyr cycles emerged only when these proxies were phase-coupled. Such coupling recurred at \textasciitilde{}2.4-Myr eccentricity maxima during the unipolar regime (before 7.5 Ma) and minima during the bipolar regime (after 4 Ma), explaining the persistent \textasciitilde{}21-kyr/\textasciitilde{}100-kyr anticorrelation because eccentricity modulates precession amplitude. We propose that internal carbon cycle dynamics and \textasciitilde{}2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated δ¹⁸O/ice volume–δ¹³C coupling amplified \textasciitilde{}100-kyr climate cycles not only over the past \textasciitilde{}800 ka but since 34 Ma. Given that eccentricity will remain low for the next 400 kyr, \textasciitilde{}100-kyr periodicities may continue to dominate future climate variability, assuming Earth remains in a bipolar regime.",

keywords = "Climate change ., PALEOCLIMATE, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY",

author = "Zhifeng Zhang and Yongjian Huang and Chao Ma and Quizhen Yin and Hanfei Yang and Lee, \{Eun Young\} and Hai Cheng and Benjamin Sames and Michael Wagreich and Tiantian Wang and Qingping Liu and Chenshan Wang",

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AU - Zhang, Zhifeng

AU - Huang, Yongjian

AU - Ma, Chao

AU - Yin, Quizhen

AU - Yang, Hanfei

AU - Lee, Eun Young

AU - Cheng, Hai

AU - Sames, Benjamin

AU - Wagreich, Michael

AU - Wang, Tiantian

AU - Liu, Qingping

AU - Wang, Chenshan

PY - 2025/8/28

Y1 - 2025/8/28

N2 - Earth’s climate has been dominated by ~100-kyr glacial cycles over the past ~800 ka, yet the mechanism remains debated. Here, we present correlation analyses of spectral power ratios of global records spanning the past 2.7 Ma, revealing a persistent anticorrelation between ~21-kyr and ~100-kyr power ratios, but no significant relationship between ~41-kyr and ~100-kyr power ratios. This suggests that ~100-kyr climate cycles are more related to eccentricity-modulated precession than to obliquity. Phase analyses of benthic δ18O/ice volume and δ13C (carbon cycle) since Antarctic glaciation onset (~34 Ma) show that strong ~100-kyr cycles emerged only when these proxies were phase-coupled. Such coupling recurred at ~2.4-Myr eccentricity maxima during the unipolar regime (before 7.5 Ma) and minima during the bipolar regime (after 4 Ma), explaining the persistent ~21-kyr/~100-kyr anticorrelation because eccentricity modulates precession amplitude. We propose that internal carbon cycle dynamics and ~2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated δ¹⁸O/ice volume–δ¹³C coupling amplified ~100-kyr climate cycles not only over the past ~800 ka but since 34 Ma. Given that eccentricity will remain low for the next 400 kyr, ~100-kyr periodicities may continue to dominate future climate variability, assuming Earth remains in a bipolar regime.

AB - Earth’s climate has been dominated by ~100-kyr glacial cycles over the past ~800 ka, yet the mechanism remains debated. Here, we present correlation analyses of spectral power ratios of global records spanning the past 2.7 Ma, revealing a persistent anticorrelation between ~21-kyr and ~100-kyr power ratios, but no significant relationship between ~41-kyr and ~100-kyr power ratios. This suggests that ~100-kyr climate cycles are more related to eccentricity-modulated precession than to obliquity. Phase analyses of benthic δ18O/ice volume and δ13C (carbon cycle) since Antarctic glaciation onset (~34 Ma) show that strong ~100-kyr cycles emerged only when these proxies were phase-coupled. Such coupling recurred at ~2.4-Myr eccentricity maxima during the unipolar regime (before 7.5 Ma) and minima during the bipolar regime (after 4 Ma), explaining the persistent ~21-kyr/~100-kyr anticorrelation because eccentricity modulates precession amplitude. We propose that internal carbon cycle dynamics and ~2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated δ¹⁸O/ice volume–δ¹³C coupling amplified ~100-kyr climate cycles not only over the past ~800 ka but since 34 Ma. Given that eccentricity will remain low for the next 400 kyr, ~100-kyr periodicities may continue to dominate future climate variability, assuming Earth remains in a bipolar regime.

KW - Climate change .

KW - PALEOCLIMATE

KW - PALEOCEANOGRAPHY

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DO - 10.1038/s41467-025-63403-4

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SN - 2041-1723

VL - 16

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 8043

ER -

100-kyr climate cycles caused by 2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated carbon cycles

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

Keywords

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