Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defence

FRIPON International Team; Oscar Marchhart; Martin Martschini; Silke Merchel; Alexander Wieser

doi:10.48550/arXiv.2509.12362

Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defence

FRIPON International Team
, Oscar Marchhart
, Martin Martschini
, Silke Merchel
, Alexander Wieser

Isotope Physics

Publications: Contribution to journal › Article › Peer Reviewed

Abstract

Mitigation of the threat from airbursting asteroids requires an understanding of the potential risk they pose for the ground. How asteroids release their kinetic energy in the atmosphere is not well understood due to the rarity of large impacts. Here we present a comprehensive, space-to-laboratory characterization of an impact of an L chondrite, which represents a common type of Earth-impacting asteroid. Small asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected in space and predicted to impact over Normandy, France, on 13 February 2023. Observations from several independent sensors and reduction techniques revealed an unusual but potentially high-risk fragmentation behaviour. The nearly spherical 650 ± 160 kg (72 ± 6 cm diameter) asteroid catastrophically fragmented at a dynamic pressure of 4 MPa around 28 km altitude, releasing 98% of its total energy in a concentrated region of the atmosphere. The resulting shock wave was spherical, not cylindrical, and released more energy closer to the ground. This type of fragmentation increases the risk of substantial damage at ground level. These results warrant consideration for a planetary defence strategy for cases where a >3–4 MPa dynamic pressure is expected, including planning for evacuation of areas beneath anticipated disruption locations.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1624-1637
Number of pages	14
Journal	Nature Astronomy
Volume	9
Early online date	17 Sept 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.12362 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-025-02659-8
Publication status	Published - Nov 2025

Funding

We thank M. Alexandersen (MPC) for reviewing and correcting station coordinates in the MPC database. Model wind data was provided by R. Brozkova from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Data visualization was provided by P. Geoffroy. We thank E. J. Christensen, R. L. Seaman and J. Stone for providing observations from the Catalina Sky Survey. The following camera operators contributed 2023 CX1 imaging to the FRIPON, GMN and UKMON networks: M. Rushton, A. Pratt, S. Saunders, J. Olver, N. Russel and M. McIntyre. Targeted fireball observations were made by V. Devillepoix, J.-L. Devillepoix, P. Devillepoix, A. Favre, A. Greenway, L. Greenway, Y. Trotel and P. Wright, among others. Observatori del Montsec-IEEC recorded the fireball from Sant Esteve de la Farga, Lleida, Catalonia, at a nominal distance of 900 km. We thank B. Gladman for the dynamical computations of the escape route of the asteroid. We thank F. Nikodem, L. Smula and M. Smula for providing the coordinates and masses of the fragments found. We thank R. Wieler for contributing to the discussion of the noble gas results. The help of the VERA cosmogenics team, especially S. Adler, R. Golser, P. Steier and C. Vivo-Vilches, is highly appreciated. The meteorite field search was supported by members of the FRIPON/Vigie-Ciel citizen science network, with participants listed at https://www.vigie-ciel.org/2024/10/21/2023cx1-splv-consortium. A.E., D.V., P. Brown and P.W. were supported in part by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (Cooperative Agreement 80NSSC21M0073). J.B. and P. Spurn & yacute; were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant No. 19-26232X). S.A. received funding from the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (Marie Skodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 101150536) for the project FLAME. D.F. and S.N. conducted their research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with NASA (80NM0018D0004). The Czech Science Foundation supported this research (Grant Nos. 25-16507S to M. Birlan and 25-16789S to J. Hanus). Funding was also received from the Hungarian National Research, Development, and Innovation Office (Grant Nos. K-138962 and GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00003) and from the Slovak Science and Grant Agency (Project VEGA-1/0487/23 to P.P., I.S. and I.K.). D. Krietsch, L.M.E. and H.B. were supported by the Swiss SNF and NCCR PlanetS (Grant Nos. 51NF40_205606 and SNF_219860). The VERA cosmogenics team was supported by the ChETEC-INFRA (Horizon 2020, Grant No. 101008324). T.S.-R. acknowledges funding from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion (Spanish Government; Grant Nos. PGC2021 and PID2021-125883NB-C21). This work was (partially) supported by the Spanish MICIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by ERDF A way of making Europe by the European Union (Grant No. PID2021-122842OB-C21) and the Institute of Cosmos Sciences, University of Barcelona (Unidad de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu; Grant No. CEX2019-000918-M). J.M.T.-R. acknowledges support from the Spanish project funded by MCIN/AEI (Project PID2021-128062NB-I00). A.J. acknowledges support from the ANID Millennium Science Initiative (Grant Nos. ICN12_009 and IM23-0001). R.A.M. acknowledges support from FONDECYT/ANID (Grant No. 124 0049) and from ANID, Fondo GEMINI, Astronomo de Soporte GEMINI-ANID (Grant No. 3223 AS0002). D.H. and J.J. were supported in part by the SIAA Foundation Interactive Astronomy and Astrophysics in Tuebingen, Germany. The Joan Oro Telescope at the Montsec Observatory is owned by the Catalan Government and operated by the Institute of Space Studies of Catalonia (IEEC). The UK Fireball Alliance meteor camera observatory was supported by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (Grant No. ST/Y004817/1). P.J. was supported by NASA (Grant No. 80NSSC18K0854).

Funders	Funder number
Meteoroid Environment Office / NASA	80NSSC21M0073
Czech Science Foundation	19-26232X

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

103004 Astrophysics

Keywords

asteroid 2023 CX1
planetary defence
Catastrophic disruption

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title = "Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defence",

abstract = "Mitigation of the threat from airbursting asteroids requires an understanding of the potential risk they pose for the ground. How asteroids release their kinetic energy in the atmosphere is not well understood due to the rarity of large impacts. Here we present a comprehensive, space-to-laboratory characterization of an impact of an L chondrite, which represents a common type of Earth-impacting asteroid. Small asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected in space and predicted to impact over Normandy, France, on 13 February 2023. Observations from several independent sensors and reduction techniques revealed an unusual but potentially high-risk fragmentation behaviour. The nearly spherical 650 ± 160 kg (72 ± 6 cm diameter) asteroid catastrophically fragmented at a dynamic pressure of 4 MPa around 28 km altitude, releasing 98\% of its total energy in a concentrated region of the atmosphere. The resulting shock wave was spherical, not cylindrical, and released more energy closer to the ground. This type of fragmentation increases the risk of substantial damage at ground level. These results warrant consideration for a planetary defence strategy for cases where a >3{\textendash}4 MPa dynamic pressure is expected, including planning for evacuation of areas beneath anticipated disruption locations.",

keywords = "asteroid 2023 CX1, planetary defence, Catastrophic disruption",

author = "\{FRIPON International Team\} and Auriane Egal and Denis Vida and Fran{\c c}ois Colas and Brigitte Zanda and Sylvain Bouley and Asma Steinhausser and Pierre Vernazza and Ludovic Ferri{\`e}re and J{\'e}r{\^o}me Gattacceca and Mirel Birlan and J{\'e}r{\'e}mie Vaubaillon and Karl Antier and Simon Anghel and Josselin Desmars and K{\'e}vin Bailli{\'e} and Lucie Maquet and S{\'e}bastien Bouquillon and Adrien Malgoyre and Simon Jeanne and Zouhair Benkhaldoun and Aoudjehane, \{Hasnaa Chennaoui\} and Hebe Cremades and Katherine Vieira and Mendez, \{Rene A.\} and Andr{\'e}s Jord{\'a}n and Bjorn Poppe and Detlef Koschny and Emmanuel Jehin and Herv{\'e} Lamy and Dario Barghini and Daniele Gardiol and Salma Sylla and Ashley King and Smedley, \{Andrew R.D.\} and Jim Rowe and Enrique Herrero and Trigo-Rodriguez, \{Josep Maria\} and Ji{\v r}{\'i} Borovi{\v c}ka and Pavel Spurn{\'y} and Devillepoix, \{Hadrien A.R.\} and Marco Micheli and Davide Farnocchia and Shantanu Naidu and Peter Brown and Paul Wiegert and Kriszti{\'a}n S{\'a}rneczky and Oscar Marchhart and Martin Martschini and Silke Merchel and Alexander Wieser",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2025.",

year = "2025",

month = nov,

doi = "10.48550/arXiv.2509.12362",

language = "English",

volume = "9",

pages = "1624--1637",

journal = "Nature Astronomy",

issn = "2397-3366",

publisher = "NATURE PORTFOLIO",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defence

AU - FRIPON International Team

AU - Egal, Auriane

AU - Vida, Denis

AU - Colas, François

AU - Zanda, Brigitte

AU - Bouley, Sylvain

AU - Steinhausser, Asma

AU - Vernazza, Pierre

AU - Ferrière, Ludovic

AU - Gattacceca, Jérôme

AU - Birlan, Mirel

AU - Vaubaillon, Jérémie

AU - Antier, Karl

AU - Anghel, Simon

AU - Desmars, Josselin

AU - Baillié, Kévin

AU - Maquet, Lucie

AU - Bouquillon, Sébastien

AU - Malgoyre, Adrien

AU - Jeanne, Simon

AU - Benkhaldoun, Zouhair

AU - Aoudjehane, Hasnaa Chennaoui

AU - Cremades, Hebe

AU - Vieira, Katherine

AU - Mendez, Rene A.

AU - Jordán, Andrés

AU - Poppe, Bjorn

AU - Koschny, Detlef

AU - Jehin, Emmanuel

AU - Lamy, Hervé

AU - Barghini, Dario

AU - Gardiol, Daniele

AU - Sylla, Salma

AU - King, Ashley

AU - Smedley, Andrew R.D.

AU - Rowe, Jim

AU - Herrero, Enrique

AU - Trigo-Rodriguez, Josep Maria

AU - Borovička, Jiří

AU - Spurný, Pavel

AU - Devillepoix, Hadrien A.R.

AU - Micheli, Marco

AU - Farnocchia, Davide

AU - Naidu, Shantanu

AU - Brown, Peter

AU - Wiegert, Paul

AU - Sárneczky, Krisztián

AU - Marchhart, Oscar

AU - Martschini, Martin

AU - Merchel, Silke

AU - Wieser, Alexander

PY - 2025/11

Y1 - 2025/11

N2 - Mitigation of the threat from airbursting asteroids requires an understanding of the potential risk they pose for the ground. How asteroids release their kinetic energy in the atmosphere is not well understood due to the rarity of large impacts. Here we present a comprehensive, space-to-laboratory characterization of an impact of an L chondrite, which represents a common type of Earth-impacting asteroid. Small asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected in space and predicted to impact over Normandy, France, on 13 February 2023. Observations from several independent sensors and reduction techniques revealed an unusual but potentially high-risk fragmentation behaviour. The nearly spherical 650 ± 160 kg (72 ± 6 cm diameter) asteroid catastrophically fragmented at a dynamic pressure of 4 MPa around 28 km altitude, releasing 98% of its total energy in a concentrated region of the atmosphere. The resulting shock wave was spherical, not cylindrical, and released more energy closer to the ground. This type of fragmentation increases the risk of substantial damage at ground level. These results warrant consideration for a planetary defence strategy for cases where a >3–4 MPa dynamic pressure is expected, including planning for evacuation of areas beneath anticipated disruption locations.

AB - Mitigation of the threat from airbursting asteroids requires an understanding of the potential risk they pose for the ground. How asteroids release their kinetic energy in the atmosphere is not well understood due to the rarity of large impacts. Here we present a comprehensive, space-to-laboratory characterization of an impact of an L chondrite, which represents a common type of Earth-impacting asteroid. Small asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected in space and predicted to impact over Normandy, France, on 13 February 2023. Observations from several independent sensors and reduction techniques revealed an unusual but potentially high-risk fragmentation behaviour. The nearly spherical 650 ± 160 kg (72 ± 6 cm diameter) asteroid catastrophically fragmented at a dynamic pressure of 4 MPa around 28 km altitude, releasing 98% of its total energy in a concentrated region of the atmosphere. The resulting shock wave was spherical, not cylindrical, and released more energy closer to the ground. This type of fragmentation increases the risk of substantial damage at ground level. These results warrant consideration for a planetary defence strategy for cases where a >3–4 MPa dynamic pressure is expected, including planning for evacuation of areas beneath anticipated disruption locations.

KW - asteroid 2023 CX1

KW - planetary defence

KW - Catastrophic disruption

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105018470519

U2 - 10.48550/arXiv.2509.12362

DO - 10.48550/arXiv.2509.12362

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105018470519

SN - 2397-3366

VL - 9

SP - 1624

EP - 1637

JO - Nature Astronomy

JF - Nature Astronomy

ER -

Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defence

Abstract

Funding

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

Keywords

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