Dangers and Strangers: Pathogenic threat, fear, and perceived vulnerability do not predict ethnocentric orientations during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe

Previous research has postulated effects of environmental stress on ingroup/outgroup thinking: The higher the pathogenic risk and the perceived vulnerability to it, the higher the ethnocentric orientation. Here, we examine ethnocentric orientations in Austria, Poland, Spain, and the Czech Republic in spring 2020, as the spread of the novel coronavirus was on the rise and lockdown measures were introduced throughout Europe. Critically, these countries were affected differentially by the spread of SARS-CoV-2
and COVID-19 mortality. Participants completed questionnaires assessing identification with all humanity, attachment style, and perceived vulnerability to disease at the beginning and end of the first European curfews. Additionally, they answered questions regarding their social interactions and personal
consequences of the crisis. To investigate the relationship between these variables and ethnocentrism, we trained two types of machine-learning models to predict ethnocentrism based on the complex interplay of interpersonal variables (psychological traits, interpersonal interactions) and environmental conditions (economic threats, local mortality, viral spread, lockdown measures). We found that identification with all humanity in relation to narrower ingroups and perceived infectability did not systematically change over the course of the first European lockdowns, whereas we observed a slight decrease in germ aversion. Importantly, none of our models could predict any inter-individual differences in identification with narrower versus wider groups based on environmental, psychological, social, and demographic variables. Our results indicate that environmental variables connected to pathogenic and economic threat, perceived vulnerability and other psychosocial variables, all do not contribute to predicting ethnocentric orientations. Cumulatively, our results do not support the hypothesis that higher pathogenic and environmental threat predicts identification with narrower ingroups. Our findings are discussed in the
context of the open debate related to the influence harsh environments on group psychology, and might inspire further research on this topic during this unprecedented global pandemic.