Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment

Franz Essl (Corresponding author), Bernd Lenzner, Sven Bacher, Sarah Bailey, César Capinha, Curtis Daehler, Stefan Dullinger, Piero Genovesi, Cang Hui, Philip E. Hulme, Jonathan M. Jeschke, Stelios Katsanevakis, Ingolf Kühn, Brian Leung, Andrew Liebhold, Chunlong Liu, Hugh J MacIsaac, Laura A. Meyerson, Martin A. Nunez, Aníbal PauchardPetr Pysek, Wolfgang Rabitsch, David M. Richardson, Helen E. Roy, Gregory M Ruiz, James Russell, Nathan J. Sanders, Dov F Sax, Riccardo Scalera, Hanno Seebens, Michael Springborn, Anna Turbelin, Mark Van Kleunen, Betsy von Holle, Marten Winter, Rafael D. Zenni, Brady J Mattson, Núria Roura-Pascual

Publications: Contribution to journalArticlePeer Reviewed

Abstract

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio-economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4880-4893
Number of pages14
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume26
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2020

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

  • 106003 Biodiversity research

Keywords

  • biological invasions
  • expert survey
  • globalization
  • impacts
  • management
  • policy
  • scenarios
  • uncertainties

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