Predicting Change Propagation Impacts in Collaborative Business processes

During the life cycle of a Business-to-Business (B2B) collab- oration, companies may need to redesign or change parts of their service orchestrations. A change request proposed by one partner will, in most cases, result in changes to other partner orchestration. An accurate prediction of the behav- ior of a change request and an analysis of its impacts on the collaboration allows to avoid significant costs related to unsuccessful propagation, e.g. negotiation fail. This pa- per focuses on predicting the likelihood of a change request propagation as well as its ripple effects on the overall col- laboration. To estimate these values, the approach analyses the collaboration structure through a priori analysis. We will show how the prediction models can be specified and implemented within a proof-of-concept prototype. Discus- sion will be provided on visualization possibilities and model validation.